Inflation Forecasting: Rewarding Luck Rather Than Skill?

Skill or Luck? Biases of Rational Agents

This paper shows why, in a world with differing priors, rational agents tend to attribute their own success more to skill and their failure more to bad luck than an outsider. It further shows why each agent in a group might think he or she is the best, why an agent might overestimate the control he has over the outcome, and why two agents’ estimated contributions often add up to more than 100%....

Mutual Fund Performance: Luck or Skill?

Should individuals include actively managed mutual funds in their investment portfolios? They should if and only if the result of active management is superior performance due to skill. This paper employs a previously ignored statistical technique to detect whether skill drives the superior performance of some mutual funds. This technique, the generalized binomial distribution, models a sequenc...

Deprenyl Can Mediate Neuronal Protection Rather than Neuronal Rescue

Background and Objective: Deprenyl is a drug for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease, where the dopaminergic neurons are the target of this drug. Several reports also documented that deprenyl has an effect on the sensory and motor neurons. There are some reports about the mode of action of deprenyl on m...

Skill or Luck? Search Frictions and Wage Differentials

The paper seeks to explain a collection of empirical regularities concerning inter– and intra–industrial wage differentials. For example, the model is consistent with the following well established set of observations: (i) Controlling for other variables, the wage of displaced workers is strongly related both to the characteristics of the pre– displacement employer and the characteristics of th...

Skill, Luck and Hot Hands on the PGA Tour